Posted by
GenXDad on Thursday, February 07, 2008 5:42:22 PM
John McCain is now the nominee-apparent. The Democrats, meanwhile, are locked in a knock-down drag-out fight that might not be settled before the convention.
Good time for McCain to go on vacation, right? Lay low, raise some money, let the Dems tear themselves to shreds while he stands above the fray, right? WRONG!
The next three months, from now until June, represent the most critical period of time for McCain's candidacy. I believe his presidency will be effectively won or lost by June. He'll either establish himself as a formidable candidate with energy and momentum behind him, or as the struggling underdog falling further behind, struggling against the poilitical tide.
Three months in politics is a lifetime, and McCain will need every minute of it. Three months ago, McCain's political career was given up for dead, but he was laying the groundwork for his resurrection. In those three months, he catapulted from also-ran to nominee. It's one of the greatest political comebacks of all time, and it was accomplished against the backdrop of a hostile environment - conservative animosity, media indifference (at first), and being outspent and out-organized by three other candidates (Romney, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson). McCain did everything he needed to do to win, despite long odds against him, and now he's the GOP nominee.
He begins this next stretch in much better shape than he was in last November. He has the GOP nomination wrapped up, while the Democrats are locked in a bitter struggle. His numbers show him consistently ahead of Clinton and in a dead heat with Obama. But he also faces big challenges. Much of the Republican party base, which he will need not only for votes but volunteers and contributions, is somewhere between skeptical and downright hostile. The political mood in the country strongly favors the Democrats, and President Bush remains very unpopular (although his numbers are starting to go up a bit).
So McCain is at a crossroads. He can establish himself as a dominant front-runner and force the Democrats to play catch-up, or he can squander this opportunity and find himself playing catch-up with the political tide running against him.
He needs to do three things: Win over his base, establish a successful fundraising and political orgnaization, and set the tone for the Presidental debate to come in the fall.
Of the three, winning over the base is first and foremost. There's little he can do, or needs to do, about Ann Coulter. Forget her, she's only raising money for herself. But he needs to talk directly to the rank-and file volunteers and donors who represent the backbone of the GOP. His speech at CPAC was a great first start, but he needs to continue to talk directly with (not at) conservatives. He needs to do this personally, not through surrogates or the media, and he needs to show that he's listening to the base. If he can convince rank-and-file conservatives that he is 1) completely committed to winning the war on terror; 2) completely committed to appointing pro-life, conservative judges; 3) completely comitted to making the tax cuts permanent and lowering taxes; 4) will be unwavering in his support of Second Ammendment rights; and 5) will respect and support the positions conservatives hold dear, he will accomplish this task. Reasonable conservatives will not throw away the country's future, concede defeat in the war on terror, or accept the demise of millions more of the unborn if they think McCain is serious and committed to doing right on these issues.
And winning over the base will go a long way toward a successful fundraising and political organization. McCain must tap into Bush's, Giuliani's and Romney's donors and start amassing a war chest, which he'll need in the summer for the "pre-convention campaign." More importantly, he'll need this machinery set up in the fall. I'm not delusional, McCain won't be able to outraise and outspend the Democrats, but he won't need to. He needs to be able to attack and counterattack, however, and not allow the Democrats to define him and the campaign.
Which brings us to the third task, setting the agenda for the campaign. McCain has a huge advantage over all candidates, even the Democrats - he has the ear of the media. With a solid base of support and a solid fundraising and political organization, plus his ability to reach people through the media, McCain can set the tone for the election, and he would need to do this in the summer. If he's on the offensive, talking about issues where the Republicans have an advantage, he can turn the nature of the debate from a referendum on Bush to a discussion about what kind of nation and world we really want. If the Democrats have to spend their time defending their foreign policy positions, or their tax hike proposals, or their socialized health care plans, instead of tying every Republican to Bush, it's a very different campaign. And if this election becomes a choice between McCain's "straight talk" and Hillary's double-talk, the Democrats will find the tide running AGAINST them.
I would add that I believe, while McCain can work on these simultaneously, the most successful strategy would be to focus most of his efforts on accomplishing these tasks in order. He's going to need the base to get the money and volunteers, and he's going to need that organization to get out his message to set the tone of the debate. Going out of order here won't work.
So far, he's making a good start at accomplishing goal #1. Stay tuned.